Introducing the Pecan Street Project


via the Texas Tribune By KATE GALBRAITH

One morning this week, several dozen residents of northeast Austin gathered to inspect three plug-in Volt cars. They peered at the electric and gasoline engine components beneath the hood and took turns sitting behind the wheel.

“I really hate buying gas,” said one of them, Joan Neuberger, a history professor at the University of Texas, who is among more than 140 local residents who have expressed interest in buying or leasing a heavily discounted Volt next year.

The plug-in cars will be part of the continuing roll-out of an Austin smart-grid study called Pecan Street, which on Friday is announcing partnerships with a handful of major companies, including Whirlpool, Best Buy and Chevrolet, the Volt’s manufacturer. The companies will test how people use New Age products and systems, including solar panels and “smart appliances” as well as plug-in cars, and how it all affects the electric grid.

There are about 200 residential participants so far in Pecan Street, which is financed partly by a 2009 federal stimulus award of $10.4 million. Besides monitoring how participants use electricity, researchers are also measuring water and natural gas use.

Early results from just a few houses are already showing interesting trends. For example, in the spring, electricity use dips lowest on Thursdays (the reason is a mystery). In the winter, natural gas use is highest in the hour after 7 a.m.

The project is also looking into whether south-facing or west-facing solar panels work better for the grid. One hundred Volts will be offered to participants with a special rebate of either $7,500 (in addition to a federal tax credit of the same amount) for those who buy or $3,000 for those who lease, both courtesy of federal stimulus money. Researchers intend to measure how car charging can be integrated with solar panels.

Pecan Street, which is affiliated with the University of Texas, is one of several smart-grid projects in the state. Another, by the Center for the Commercialization of Electric Technologies and also financed partly with federal stimulus money, will include studies on a new Houston neighborhood that people are still moving into. Texas is a good place to conduct smart-grid research, experts say, because the deregulation of the electricity market roughly a decade ago means that electric companies are motivated to offer consumers different ways to monitor and pay for their power.

“Texas is really leading the nation with respect to promoting a well-balanced approach to smart-grid,” said Jerry Jackson, a former Texas A&M professor who now leads a national smart-grid research consortium based in Orlando, Fla.

More than four million “smart meters” are already installed in deregulated parts of Texas, according to the Public Utility Commission, and many more should be installed by the end of next year, said Donna Nelson, the commission’s chairwoman.

The installation of smart meters has been slightly contentious in Texas, but not nearly as controversial as it has been in California, the other major smart-meter state. Smart meters allow many Texans to monitor their electric use on a Web site in 15-minute intervals, if they choose. This information allows people to know when they are using more electricity than expected.

For Pecan Street researchers, one of the surprising findings to date is that there is little difference in energy use between homes in Mueller, a new, green-built Austin neighborhood, and older homes outside that neighborhood.

What that suggests, said Brewster McCracken, the project’s executive director, is that personal behavior appears, so far, “to be much more important than the green-building rating of the home.”

kgalbraith@texastribune.org

via NYTimes

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

If necessity is the mother of invention, Paul Polak is one of its fathers.

For 30 years Dr. Polak, a 78-year-old former psychiatrist, has focused on creating devices that will improve the lives of 2.6 billion people living on less than $2 a day. But, he insists, they must be so cheap and effective that the poor will actually buy them, since charity disappears when donors find new causes.

Inventing a new device is only the beginning, he says; the harder part is finding dependable manufacturers and creating profitable distributorships. The “appropriate technology” field, he argues, is “dominated by tinkerers and short of entrepreneurs.”


His greatest success has been a treadle pump that lets farmers raise groundwater in the dry season, when crops fetch more money. He has sold more than two million, he said.

He also helped develop a $25 artificial knee and a $400 hospital lamp to save newborns with life-threatening jaundice. He is field-testing a reprogrammable “talking poster” that gives mini-lectures in local languages, with pictures, on topics as varied as rice-planting and hand-washing. And he has an ambitious project to create franchises through which Indian village shopkeepers will purify polluted water and sell it. We spoke at a convention of young inventors in Arlington, Va.; what follows is an edited version of our conversation.

Q. What in your past led you into this unusual specialty?

A. My dad comes from a peasant background in Czechoslovakia; he lived in a house with the people upstairs and animals downstairs, so I have an innate affinity for peasants. Also, we were Jewish, and in 1938 refugees were streaming across the border from Germany with broken heads.

Pretty much anybody could see what was coming. My dad said, “There’s going to be hell to pay soon,” and made plans to escape. But when he tried to tell our family and friends, they said things like “But what would we do with the furniture?” I got from him an eye for seeing the obvious.

He also had an entrepreneur’s streak, which I inherited. He had a high school education, but he started a plant nursery and was doing very well. He sold everything at 10 cents on the dollar, and we escaped to Canada.

I went to medical school, got a degree in psychiatry, and in 1959 I moved to Denver and got a job at Fort Logan Mental Health Center. In my spare time, I invested in real estate. I bought mismanaged apartment buildings. I also owned a small oil company drilling stripper wells. I invented a pump jack for the oilfield industry — I’ve always knocked around in that kind of stuff. By 1981, I’d worked for 22 years as a psychiatrist, and I’d cleared about three million bucks, mostly in real estate.

Q. What got you interested in poverty?

A. I was one of the pioneers in treating people more effectively in real-life settings. The conventional assumption is that patients are admitted to psychiatric institutions because a therapist or family member says they’re mentally ill. But I talked to a lot of our patients as if they were customers, and they defined something going on in their family or workplace as the primary reason they were there. So I started going into patients’ homes or workplaces.

At the time, there was a lot of emphasis on making the wards a lot more like a family. I came to the astonishing conclusion that the most familylike setting was a family. So we recruited nine healthy private families and admitted acutely ill patients to them.

It was much more effective. If you’re a guest in somebody’s nice home, you ain’t going to break the furniture. We provided the support — the physicals, the lab tests, rapid tranquilization. But the deinstitutionalization model that followed that dumped people out with no follow-up was in some cases worse than being institutionalized.

I also noticed that a lot of these people were very poor, and that had a big impact on their symptoms. That got me interested in poverty.

Q. And in third-world poverty?

A. My wife’s a Mennonite, and they had programs in Bangladesh. It had hit me between the eyes that homeless people in Denver were living on $500 a month, but there were people overseas living on $30 a month. So I took a trip to Bangladesh.

Some farmers were using hand pumps, but biomechanically, that’s a lousy way to raise water. A Mennonite guy had invented a rower pump that would pull up enough to water a half-acre of vegetables. They had installed 2,000 over five years, and those farmers seemed to be making a lot of money, so I said, “Why don’t we do a project, with an objective of selling 25,000 a year?”

We hit that pretty quickly. One or two Mennonites objected — they considered the idea of selling something to poor people immoral. But we kept at it, and then we found the treadle pump. It was brilliantly simple, it could be manufactured by local workshops, and a local driller could dig a 40-foot well and install it for $25. Studies showed that farmers made $100 in one season on that investment.

We talked to 75 little welding shops where they make things like bedsprings, and jawboned them into making treadle pumps. We went to people who sold things like toilet bowls, and cut a deal with them to be dealers. We trained 3,000 tinkerers to be well-drillers. We hired troubadours to write songs about treadle pumps, and we’d pass out leaflets when they performed. We even produced a 90-minute Bollywood movie.

Q. About treadle pumps?

A. Yeah. People in these little villages couldn’t read or write. We hired the top director in Bangladesh and two top actors. It cost us 25 grand of our Canadian government grant. The plot was “boy meets girl, but they can’t marry because her father can’t afford a dowry.” Then she falls into the hands of dowry bandits, then there’s a near-suicide. By now, with lots of singing and dancing, you’re 60 minutes in.

At the climactic moment, the movie stops. Our dealers get customers up on model pumps. The movie resumes, the father buys a pump, makes enough for the dowry, they live happily ever after. Somewhat cheesy, but we bought a van with a video setup, and took it to villages — a typical open-air audience was 2,000 to 5,000 people.

Q. What’s the biggest mistake aid agencies make?

A. As we were developing our pump, the World Bank was subsidizing deep-well diesel pumps that could cover 40 acres. The theory was that you’d get a macroeconomic benefit, but it was also very destructive to social justice. The big pumps were handed out by government agents; the government agent was bribeable. The pump would go to the biggest landholder, and he’d become a waterlord.

Q. There have been some well-known failures in this field, like One Laptop Per Child and the Playpump. Can you say why?

A. The laptop was a middle-class device that doesn’t communicate with people who don’t read and write. It cost $100, plus it used the charity model — buy two, give one away. The Playpump, which was a children’s merry-go-round that pumps water, cost $11,000. Women in Africa walk for hours to a well, and then jiggle the pump handle for 60 seconds. This replaces the jiggling. How important is that? And they break. For $11,000, you could dig five wells and eliminate the walk.

Q. What are your principles for success?

A. In 1981, I said, “I’m going to interview 100 $1-a-day families every year, come rain or shine, and learn from them first.”

Over 28 years, I’ve interviewed over 3,000 families. I spend about six hours with each one — walking with them through their fields, asking what they had for breakfast, how far their kids walk to school, what they feed their dog, what all their sources of income are. This is not rocket science. Any businessman knows this: You’ve got to talk to your customers.

According to National Geographic:
The map shows population density; the brightest points are the highest densities. Each country is colored according to its average annual gross national income per capita, using categories established by the World Bank (see key below). Some nations— like economic powerhouses China and India—have an especially wide range of incomes. But as the two most populous countries, both are lower middle class when income is averaged per capita.

The feature article, Age of Man, is worth perusing, as well. If you’re a visual learner, you’ll also enjoy The Face of Seven Billion, where you can explore how the global population breaks down in terms of language, nationality, literacy, religion, and so on.

via NYTimes Bits Blog
by: Jenna Wortham

The battle royale brewing between New York and Silicon Valley to be the nation’s dominant epicenter for tech innovation and hot start-ups wages on. On Monday night in downtown Manhattan, Paul Graham stood before a packed auditorium of 800 entrepreneurs, developers, programmers and others who were curious about what makes a city a fertile environment for a thriving community of start-ups. Mr. Graham is a well-known investor and esteemed figure in Silicon Valley because he created Y Combinator, an incubator in Mountain View, Calif., that has given seed money and mentorship to start-ups.

At the Y Combinator event, Mr. Graham raised the question of the sustainability of New York’s future as a hotbed of technology innovation and whether the city could ever grow to rival Silicon Valley.

“The truth is that I don’t know what’s going to happen,” he said. “Hubs tend to stay hubs.”

Mr. Graham gave the keynote talk for the evening, but also welcomed several Y Combinator alumni to the stage, including Sam Altman of Loopt, Alexis Ohanian of Reddit and Joe Gebbia of Airbnb. Mr. Graham kidded that his speech could have been titled “On the Other Hand,” because for each theory he had about why New York, a decade after the dot-com bust, was springing back to life and whether it could give rise to the next Facebook or Google, he had a counterpoint to rival it.

He said that geographically speaking, there were several elements that contributed to a healthy ecosystem to nurture young start-ups. After all, he acknowledged, most start-ups don’t make it past their infancy.

“But places aren’t sprayed with start-upicide,” he said. “A start-up needs keys to success.”

He noted that New York, like Silicon Valley, had the same density of tech-savvy people working in similar industries required for the kinds of happenstance encounters and introductions that could revive a company’s flailing fortunes and help right its trajectory.

He recalled the serendipitous sidewalk meeting of Mark Zuckerberg and Sean Parker, the founder of Napster, who helped shape Facebook in its early days and became its founding president.

“The antidote for a failing start-up is Sean Parker,” he said.

However, Mr. Graham also said that New Yorkers tended to prize making money above all other goals — which could prove to be advantageous or disastrous for a fledgling company or business idea.

“The Valley is a magnet for nerdy visionaries,” he said. “New York is for rapacious deal makers.”

Mr. Graham went on to list a few other factors that detract from New York’s viability, including the distractions of city life and other, more lucrative industries, like Wall Street, along with the Valley’s perennially sunny climate.

But he did note that New York had surpassed Boston, long considered a nexus of technology and start-up culture.

“New York is solidly No. 2 right now,” he said.

New York, Mr. Graham said, was ripe for the kinds of companies that can disrupt and transform some of the city’s legacy businesses, like fashion, advertising and finance. Whether or not they can give rise to a large-scale technology company along the lines of Google and Facebook, he said, remains to be seen for now.

However, even Mr. Graham isn’t immune to the siren call of the hot start-ups cropping up in the boroughs of New York. Although he said he had no plans to bring a version of his incubator to the East Coast, like Ron Conway, a lauded angel investor, and Accel Partners, a well-known investment firm, who each have turned a keener eye to New York in recent months, Mr. Graham did say that he hoped to lure more New Yorkers to the annual Y Combinator start-up class.

But for those entrepreneurs who are accepted into Y Combinator and, after finishing their three-month incubation period, want to move back to New York? He wishes them the best of luck on their journey.

“I don’t try to stop them,” he said.

via the Wall Street Journal

Fast-growing emerging market economies are attracting soaring investment flows as growth in the U.S. and Europe remains sluggish. The trend has produced unexpected downsides such as overvalued currencies. Mouse over each emerging market country to see what the effects have been, and what the governments have tried to do about it.
Click on the image to launch the interactive feature.

via NYTimes




When the unemployment rate rose in most states last month, it underscored the extent to which the deep recession, the anemic recovery and the lingering crisis of joblessness are beginning to reshape the nation’s economic map.

The once-booming South, which entered the recession with the lowest unemployment rate in the nation, is now struggling with some of the highest rates, recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show.

Several Southern states — including South Carolina, whose 11.1 percent unemployment rate is the fourth highest in the nation — have higher unemployment rates than they did a year ago. Unemployment in the South is now higher than it is in the Northeast and the Midwest, which include Rust Belt states that were struggling even before the recession.

For decades, the nation’s economic landscape consisted of a prospering Sun Belt and a struggling Rust Belt. Since the recession hit, though, that is no longer the case. Unemployment remains high across much of the country — the national rate is 9.1 percent — but the regions have recovered at different speeds.

Now, with the concentration of the highest unemployment rates in the South and the West, some economists wonder if it is an anomaly of the uneven recovery or a harbinger of things to come.

“Because the recovery is so painfully slow, people may begin to think of the trends established during the recovery as normal,” said Howard Wial, a fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program who recently co-wrote an economic analysis of the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. “Will people think of Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona as more or less permanently depressed? Think of the Great Lakes as being a renaissance region? I don’t know. It’s possible.”

The West has the highest unemployment in the nation. The collapse of the housing bubble left Nevada with the highest jobless rate, 13.4 percent, followed by California with 12.1 percent. Michigan has the third-highest rate, 11.2 percent, as a result of the longstanding woes of the American auto industry.

Now, though, of the states with the 10 highest unemployment rates, six are in the South. The region, which relied heavily on manufacturing and construction, was hit hard by the downturn.

Economists offer a variety of explanations for the South’s performance. “For a long time we tended to outpace the national average with regard to economic performance, and a lot of that was driven by, for lack of a better word, development and in-migration,” said Michael Chriszt, an assistant vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s research department. “That came to an abrupt halt, and it has not picked up.”

The long cycle of “lose jobs, gain jobs, lose jobs” that kept Georgia’s unemployment rate at 10.2 percent in August — the same as it was a year earlier — is illustrated by Union City, a small city on the outskirts of Atlanta.

It suffered a blow when the last store in its darkened mall, Sears, announced that it would soon close. But the city had other irons in the fire: a few big companies were hiring, and earlier this year Dendreon, a biotech company that makes a cancer drug, opened a plant there, lured in part by state and local subsidies.

Then, this month, Dendreon said it would lay off more than 100 workers at the new plant as part of a national “restructuring.”

Union City, with a population of 20,000, now calls itself the place “Where Business Meets the World” and has been trying to lure companies by pointing out its low business taxes, various incentive programs and proximity to Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.

Steve Rapson, the city manager, said that the challenge there, as in much of America, has been to get employers to hire again. “It’s hard to get your mind around what can you do as a city to encourage future jobs and jobs growth,” he said.

The reordering of the nation’s economic fortunes can be seen in the Brookings analysis, which found that many auto-producing metropolitan areas in the Great Lakes states are seeing modest gains in manufacturing that are helping them recover from their deep slump, while Sun Belt and Western states with sharp drops in home values are still suffering. The areas that have been hurt the least since the recession, the study said, rely on government, education or energy production. Places that were less buoyed by the housing bubble were less harmed when it burst.

In Pennsylvania, the analysis found, the Pittsburgh area — which is heavily reliant on education and health care — is weathering the downturn better than the Philadelphia area. In New York, areas around long-struggling upstate cities like Buffalo and Rochester are recovering faster by some measures than the New York City metropolitan area. And the rate of recovery in Rust Belt areas around Youngstown and Akron, two Ohio cities that were hit hard, has outpaced that of former boomtowns like Colorado Springs and Tucson.

In a sign of how severe the downturn has been, the Brookings analysis found that only 16 of the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas have regained more than half of the jobs they lost during the recession.

The toll on the nation’s millions of unemployed people has been harsh, with the Census Bureau reporting that the United States had more people living in poverty last year than in any year since it began keeping records half a century ago.

Joblessness is taking a toll on states, too. This month, 27 states will have to pay $1.2 billion to the federal government in interest on the $37.5 billion that they borrowed in recent years to keep paying unemployment benefits.

What is most striking about the high unemployment rates, several economists said in interviews, is how they continue to afflict wide parts of the country.

“It just seems to be so pervasive across the country — except for the breadbasket area — that it’s hard to pick out anybody who is bouncing back,” said Randall W. Eberts, the president of the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in Michigan.

Dr. Eberts pointed to another feature of the downturn: people are much less likely to leave their jobs voluntarily. Before the recession, he said, about three million people voluntarily left their jobs each month. Now, around two million people do — leaving fewer openings for job seekers.

So what happened in South Carolina? Richard Kaglic, a regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Va., said the state’s lingering troubles reflect what happened when its construction and manufacturing industries were hit hard by the recession. Mr. Kaglic, who is also a pilot, used an aviation metaphor to explain what he meant.

“If your nose is high, if you’re climbing faster and your engine cuts out, you fall farther and it takes you a longer time to recover,” he said. “The conditions we experienced in late 2008, 2009, are as close as you come to an engine-out situation in the economy.”

But Mr. Kaglic said that the recent return of manufacturing jobs was giving him hope, and that one reason for the high unemployment rate was that more people were now seeking work.

“I would look at it as our dreams are delayed,” he said, “rather than our dreams being denied.”